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Yield Trends of Corn and Soybean in the Midwest

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org

Citation:  2019 ASABE Annual International Meeting  1900329.(doi:10.13031/aim.201900329)
Authors:   Rakesh Kumar, Ashraf Y Mahgoub, Dennis Buckmaster, Somali Chaterji
Keywords:   Yield Trends, Data Science

Abstract. Analyzing a given crop‘s yield trend is useful in studying how seed-quality or soil-quality augmentation techniques are impacting the overall yield of the crop for a given region‘s climatic conditions. This can help us in computing the increase in crop yield per dollar increase in investment (improved seed-quality and nutrient management solutions). This paper analyzes more than four decades worth of two crops‘ (corn and soybeans) historical yield data belonging to nine different Midwest states. The analysis shows that while the trend is increasing for all the states over the period 1971 to 2015, the rate of change in yield is different for different states. For example, increase in corn yield for Minnesota is almost 2x of Kansas (2.00 vs 1.05 bu/acre per year). Similarly, increase in soybeans yield for Nebraska is more than 2x of Missouri (0.69 vs 0.33 bu/acre per year). Within WHIN counties, White has 1.3x increase in corn yield as compared to Warren (1.99 vs 1.50 bu/acre per year) whereas Carroll has 1.6x increase in soybeans yield than Pulaski (0.59 vs 0.38 bu/acre per year). Overall in Indiana, increase in corn and soybeans yields are 0.77x and 0.65x of maximum respectively among Midwest states.

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