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Modeling the Combined Effects of Climate Change and Land Use Dynamics on River Discharge in a Semi-Arid Watershed of Southwestern Iran

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org

Citation:  2026 ASABE Annual International Meeting  2601285.(doi:10.13031/aim.202601285)
Authors:   Zohreh Khorsandi Kouhanestani, Farhad Mokhtari, Farzaneh Khorsandi
Keywords:   Land Use Changes, Landuse changes, Discharge, Iran.

Abstract. River discharge in semi-arid watersheds is highly affected by climate conditions and land use change. These factors influence water availability and agricultural sustainability. This study investigated the combined effects of climate change and land use change on river discharge in a semi-arid watershed in southwestern Iran. Historical climate and hydrological data from meteorological and hydrometric stations were analyzed to evaluate long-term trends. Land use changes were identified using Landsat satellite images and classified with the Random Forest method.

The results showed a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in temperature during the study period. Agricultural and residential areas also expanded significantly. These changes reduced river discharge and increased pressure on surface water resources. The integrated modeling approach used in this study can help evaluate hydrological responses to environmental changes and support water resource management and agricultural planning in semi-arid regions.

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