ASABE Technical Library - Abstract

Click on “Download PDF” for the PDF version or on the title for the HTML version.
If you are not an ASABE member or if your employer has not arranged for access to the full-text, view access and subscription options

An Integrated System Dynamics and TPB Framework for Adaptive Agricultural Reservoir Operation

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org

Citation:  2026 ASABE Annual International Meeting  2600409.(doi:10.13031/aim.202600409)
Authors:   Won-Ho Nam, Dong-Hyun Yoon, Jingyu Lyu
Keywords:   Agricultural reservoir operation, system dynamics, adaptive management, human decision-making, socio-hydrology, water allocation, hydroclimatic uncertainty.

Abstract. Agricultural reservoirs play a critical role in sustaining food production and rural livelihoods; however, their operation is increasingly challenged by climate-change-induced hydroclimatic uncertainty, including intensified rainfall events, prolonged droughts, altered inflow patterns, and increasing irrigation-water demand. Conventional reservoir operation strategies are generally based on predefined rule curves, fixed storage thresholds, or historical hydrological conditions, limiting their ability to represent adaptive human decision-making and nonlinear feedback under changing climate conditions. This study develops an integrated system dynamics (SD) and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) framework for evaluating adaptive agricultural reservoir operation under hydroclimatic uncertainty. The system dynamics module represents feedback interactions among reservoir storage, inflow, irrigation demand, spillway discharge, evaporation loss, and downstream water availability. The Theory of Planned Behavior module quantifies operator behavioral intention based on attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, perceived hydroclimatic risk, and operational experience. Behavioral intention is further linked to reservoir-storage conditions and delayed forecast signals through adaptive response coefficients for flood-prevention and drought-conservation operation. Scenario analysis compares five operation strategies, including standard operation, flood anticipation, drought conservation, balanced anticipatory operation, and aggressive anticipatory operation under compound climate extremes. Model evaluation combines hydrological calibration, structural validity testing, and performance assessment using reliability, supply ratio, resilience, vulnerability, and supply equity indicators. The proposed framework enables explicit analysis of how operator cognition and adaptive release behavior reshape reservoir-storage dynamics, irrigation-water supply, and downstream water availability under climate-change stress. By linking human behavioral mechanisms with hydrological feedback processes, this study provides a cognitive socio-hydrological approach for adaptive agricultural reservoir management and decision support under increasing hydroclimatic uncertainty.

(Download PDF)    (Export to EndNotes)