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Developing a Landslide Forecast Network for Puerto Rico
Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org
Citation: Soil Erosion Research Under a Changing Climate, January 8-13, 2023, Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, USA .(doi:10.13031/soil.23527)Authors: Tania Figueroa Colon, Kenneth Stephen Hughes, William H Schulz, Mason M Einbund, Kelli W Baxtrom
Keywords: Forecasting, Landslides, Monitoring stations.
Abstract
Puerto Rico is especially vulnerable to landslides due to its humid-tropical climate and steep mountainous relief. High intensity rainfall events that include tropical storms and hurricanes are capable of triggering widespread mass wasting across the rugged interior of the territory. In 2017, more than 70,000 mostly shallow debris flow slope failures were documented in the island after Hurricane Maria, causing widespread infrastructure damages, isolating communities, increasing sedimentation problems and even claiming the lives of some residents. While Hurricane Maria caused widespread landsliding, wet season rainfalls can also cause local but impactful landslides in susceptible regions across the island.
The US Geological Survey and University of Puerto Rico Department of Geology have collaborated to establish the Puerto Rico Landslide Forecasting System to better understand soil hydrological response to meteorological forcing in diverse geological and soil regimes in Puerto Rico. This endeavor includes a group of soil monitoring stations (Figure 1) that have been installed around the island in areas vulnerable to landslides (Figure 2). Together, they constitute a network that provides real time soil moisture, pore pressure, groundwater level, and precipitation data. The network is remotely monitored using proprietary software that makes data collection and near-real time updates to data time series plots, graphs, and other programmable graphics. With sufficient data and data analysis, this network will help determine hydro-meteorological threshold conditions for landslide activity in diverse zones of Puerto Rico. The incorporation of additional stations to the network will help broaden its coverage area and make possible the operational status of the network.
The forecast network could include both “nowcasting” and forecasting outlooks based on in-situ measurements and the incorporation of precipitation forecasts generated by weather models. The network will help inform local agencies and emergency managers that deal with landslide hazards and hopefully reduce the loss of life related to this issue. It also represents the first step in the process of monitoring the landslide activity on the island and helping the residents understand and take an active role in dealing with the risks of living in landslide prone areas.
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