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The State of Puerto Rico's Climate - Basis for a New Generation of Resilient Communities and Infrastructure

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org

Citation:  Soil Erosion Research Under a Changing Climate, January 8-13, 2023, Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, USA  .(doi:10.13031/soil.23509)
Authors:   Ernesto L. Diaz
Keywords:   Climate change, Resilience, Extremes, Coastal Erosion, Inundation, Sea level rise.

Abstract

The climate of Puerto Rico is influenced by the changing global and regional climate. The Puerto Rico Climate Change Council (PRCCC) - a voluntary association consisting of over 120 scientists - generates, collects and integrates current knowledge of the geophysical and chemical drivers and signals of global climate change as they affect the climate of Puerto Rico. Through its State of Puerto Rico‘s climate reports, the PRCCC examines climate change effects and impacts on climate-dependent services, risks, and vulnerabilities that govern human well-being. These include sustainable economic development, delivery of ecosystem services, the conservation of natural and cultural resources, resiliency in built and natural systems, and food security. This presentation discusses global warming scenarios, the contribution of Puerto Rico to global climate change as GHG emissions and aerosols, observed and projected trends in temperature, rainfall, and sea level rise, as well as the expected implications of warming climate on tropical cyclones affecting Puerto Rico. Due to the risks threatening tropical islands, the presentation focuses on coastal areas. Forty percent of the world‘s population live on the coast and 54 percent live in cities. In the case of Puerto Rico, 61% of the population live in the 44 coastal municipalities where most of the critical infrastructure is located and the economic activity takes place. Low-lying cities and communities exposed to regular coastal floods and direct wave attack are at a greater risk. Cities must deal with risk reduction, design protection, and adaptation interventions at built-up areas that currently experience coastal floods. Higher-cost public and private infrastructure are more likely to be eligible and get funding for protection through more sophisticated and expensive alternatives. There is a need to revisit federal agencies‘ benefit cost analysis methods to foster a balanced and equitable approach to reduce coastal risk. Planning and designing the expansion of coastal cities and new infrastructure must consider sea level rise adaptation. Construction setbacks should incorporate projected sea level rise scenarios to ensure functionality of social-ecological systems. When planning new development, we need to identify existing natural infrastructure such as reefs, sand dunes, and wetlands and integrate conservation measures. The new generation of coastal infrastructure should integrate living, self-adapting components to manage more frequent and intense storms and sea level rise. A segment of the presentation will examine natural and critical infrastructure at risk, the need to translate science into policy and more importantly into updated regulations and codes with focus on flood risk, erosion, and sedimentation management. Procrastination in the face of climate change increases risks and vulnerabilities.

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