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Progress in Establishing the Puerto Rico Landslide Forecast Network

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org

Citation:  Soil Erosion Research Under a Changing Climate, January 8-13, 2023, Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, USA  .(doi:10.13031/soil.23501)
Authors:   K. Stephen Hughes, William H. Schulz, Mason M. Einbund, Tania Figueroa Colón, Kelli W. Baxstrom, Alesandra C. Morales Vélez
Keywords:   Landslides, Puerto Rico, Hazards.

Abstract

Significant advances in landslide science have been made since the passage of Hurricane María over Puerto Rico in 2017. The disaster presented the opportunity to examine the environmental conditions related to over 70,000 landslide sites across the island. In addition to better understanding the specific conditions where shallow debris flow type events occur, the study of sedimentation related to mass wasting has been carried out. Collaboration between the USGS Landslide Hazards Program and the UPRM Department of Geology has been essential in producing a new, high-resolution landslide susceptibility map for the entire island and also in establishing a network of hydrological soil monitoring stations that can be used to forecast and "nowcast" when soil conditions are favorable for landslide initiation across distinct geological and soil regimes of the island's mountainous zones (Hughes and Schulz, 2020). The network of standalone stations operates in real-time and data is tabulated simultaneously and compared with empirical bilinear thresholds that have been derived for hydrological - meteorological conditions - namely soil saturation, pore pressure, and groundwater head - that can trigger landslides. The data is automatically updated to the web and made public (Figure 1).

The Puerto Rico Landslide Forecast Network represents the most advanced system of its kind in any jurisdiction of the United States and serves as a model for future efforts. Hurricane Fiona in September 2022 was an important test for the network when all stations survived the tropical cyclone and transmitted important data during the historic rainfall event.

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