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Prediction of Sediment Load in Agricultural and Forested Watersheds in Mississippi under a Changing Climate

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org

Citation:  Soil Erosion Research Under a Changing Climate, January 8-13, 2023, Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, USA  .(doi:10.13031/soil.23033)
Authors:   Ying Ouyang, Gary Feng, Johnny M Grace, III
Keywords:   Climate change, HAWQS model, Sediment.

Abstract

Sediment transport in rivers is recognized as both a carrier and a potential source of contaminants to aquatic environments due to their adsorption of toxic chemicals, excess nutrients, and pathogens. Sediment deposition can significantly change river flow, stage, and morphology, which would result in a broad impact on surface water hydrology and aquatic life. Agricultural, forestry, industrial, and urban activities are the major sources of sediment contamination and deposition in rivers, streams, and lakes. This is also occurring in basins of Mississippi, USA.

Climate change is a natural phenomenon, but anthropogenic activities such as fossil fuel burning, industrial pollution, deforestation, and population growth have greatly accelerated the greenhouse gaseous emissions. These activities have, in turn, resulted in extreme abnormal climate patterns.

In this study, we applied the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS) model (https://hawqs.tamu.edu/#/; Ouyang, 2021) to predict impacts of climate change on sediment loads in agricultural and forest watersheds in the Yazoo River basin, Mississippi, USA (Figure 1). This basin is an intensive crop and forest production region in the Midsouth US. Two simulation scenarios were developed, one for the past 50 years from 1968 to 2018 and the other for the future 50 years from 2022 to 2072. Simulated percent difference in annual average sediment load between the two scenarios showed that impacts of future climate on sediment load varied with watersheds and the difference was in a range from -10 to +30%. In other words, future climate could either increase or decrease the sediment load, depending on watershed location. Further study is, therefore, warranted to investigate the spatial variability of the sediment load due to the projected climate change.

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