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Watershed Modeling Tools for the Climate Change Challenge

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org

Citation:  Soil Erosion Research Under a Changing Climate, January 8-13, 2023, Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, USA  .(doi:10.13031/soil.23507)
Authors:   Billy E. Johnson, Carlos E. Ruiz, Patrick N. Deliman
Keywords:   Erosion, Modeling, Sediment transport, Water quality, Watershed.

Abstract

Climate change could have impacts on hydrologic systems threatening, availability of water supply resources and increased soil erosion and channel sedimentation. The newest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) paints a troubling picture (IPCC, 2022); Climate change is already impacting every corner of the world, and much more severe impacts are in store if we fail to halve greenhouse gas emissions this decade and immediately scale up adaptation.

Following on the first installment of the IPCC‘s Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group II's contribution, released on February 28, 2022, draws from 34,000 studies and involved 270 authors from 67 countries. It provides one of the most comprehensive examinations of the intensifying impacts of climate change and future risks, particularly for resource-poor countries and marginalized communities. The 2022 IPCC report also details which climate adaptation approaches are most effective and feasible, as well as which groups of people and ecosystems are most vulnerable.

Here are six takeaways from the report:

Climate impacts are already more widespread and severe than expected.

We are locked into even worse impacts from climate change in the near-term.

Risks will escalate quickly with higher temperatures, often causing irreversible impacts of climate change.

Inequity, conflict and development challenges heighten vulnerability to climate risks.

Adaptation is crucial. Feasible solutions already exist, but more support must reach vulnerable communities.

Some impacts of climate change are already too severe to adapt too. The world needs urgent action now to address losses and damages.

As the world combats the causes of climate change, watershed modeling tools will be instrumental in assessing the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic system and useful in developing mitigation strategies for communities to live and thrive with an ever changing world.

While this paper is not intended to be an exhaustive review of all watershed models, we will present three modeling systems currently applied across many watersheds within the U.S. These models, GSSHA, SWAT, and HSPF operate at different temporal and spatial scales thus providing simulation capabilities for a wide range of problems and geographic areas.

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