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Analysis of Long-Term Extreme Wetness, Hotness, and Coldness Patterns in Kansas, USA

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org

Citation:  2020 ASABE Annual International Virtual Meeting  2001239.(doi:10.13031/aim.202001239)
Authors:   Matthew J Stone, Vahid Rahmani
Keywords:   h-index, climate extremes, frequency and magnitude, trend analysis, climate change, central North America, water resources, agriculture

Abstract. As a result of global climate change, weather events around the world are growing warmer and more variable, with arid places becoming more arid. In this study, we use the recently suggested modification to the h-index (Treacy et al., 2019) to analyze changes in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature and precipitation conditions in Kansas, located in the central United States. These indices have the advantage of being able to convey both a magnitude and frequency of days for which conditions of that magnitude occurs. Daily precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature data were obtained from 23 long-term weather stations across Kansas for the period of 1890-2013. Three h-indices based on Tmax (H-index), Tmin (C-index), and precipitation (W-Index) were analyzed to determine spatial and temporal trends. Five, five, and two stations displayed statistical significance (P<0.05) for H, C, and W-Index, respectively. The magnitude of the significant trends for H, C, and W-Index ranged from -1.8 to 1.2 °F*days/century, -1.9 to -3.7 °F below freezing*days/century, and 1.2 to 1.7 mm*days/century, respectively. Overall, 19 stations displayed negative slopes for the linear trends of the H-Index, 18 had negative slopes for C-Index, and 20 had positive slopes for W-Index over the period of record. These trends indicate rising minimum temperatures, falling maximum temperatures, and increased daily precipitation. Results also indicated the h-index to be an effective method for analyzing climate extremes by providing simultaneous information on both frequency and magnitude of the events. Using the h-index to measure temperature was most effective, producing more significant results than for precipitation.

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