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Reliability of RZWQM model predictions: Model calibration for performance and robustness.
Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.orgCitation: 2018 ASABE Annual International Meeting 1800369.(doi:10.13031/aim.201800369)
Authors: Robert P Anex, Lei Gu, Matthew Helmers
Keywords: Climate change, Inverse modeling, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Prediction robustness, RZWQM, PEST..
Using experimental data over 12 years, we investigated the robustness of RZWQM predictions of crop yield, subsurface drainage flow, and nitrate-N loss for multiple model calibrations using the PEST parameter estimation software. We tested the use of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) as an indicator of the soil moisture related information content of calibration data. Using the PDSI, we identified a single year‘s observations that when added to a five-year calibration improved the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) from -0.22 to 0.7. We suggest using the range of PDSI as a metric in evaluating the suitability of RZWQM calibrations for making predictions about impacts under unobserved climate conditions.(Download PDF) (Export to EndNotes)