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Abstract.

The long-term use of antimicrobial agents in animal farming industry has resulted in the emergence and widespread spread of drug-resistant pathogens, which poses great challenges to food safety. At present, many countries and organizations have been established a pathogen resistance monitoring network in the world. Some experts also established some prediction models for the resistance of some animal-derived pathogens. However, studies on trend analysis and prediction model of drug resistance based on the database are so limited. Therefore, the establishment of database and model study on drug resistance of animal origin pathogen is proposed in this paper. In this paper, the database based on Microsoft SQL Server 2005 software was combined with IIS services to build a web server and used B/S architecture, which could realize the function that many people can simultaneously access, browse and download data. Some models like ARIMA, neural network and software like MATLAB and SPSS could help me build the mathematical models by using the data in the database. Using the suitable model that could evaluate mean square error (MSE), absolute difference (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) made it easy to analyze the trend of drug resistance of some key pathogens. The design of the database and the establishment of the forecast model can achieve the warning of drug resistance timely, which can also provide basic data support and application guidance for the relevant scientific research departments and regulatory authorities.