Estimating Paddy Rice Yield Change Considering Climate Change Impact on Cropping System

Abstract. According to the IPCC climate change report, temperature and precipitation would be increased due to climate change in South Korea which impacts on paddy rice cultivation in terms of water use and rice production. It would have a significant impact on paddy rice cultivation including crop growth period change, changes in crop factors and crop varieties and farming methods which are highly dependable on weather condition. Previous studies have estimated the agricultural water according to the climate change scenarios, but most of them do not take into consideration the cropping system and the farming method. In this study paddy rice yield change is estimated considering climate change impacts on paddy rice cropping system to identify the climate change response in food security of South Korea. In this study, the study areas were selected and constructed the future weather data using the climate change scenarios, and simulated the yields of future paddy rice using the crop model to estimate the agricultural water of the paddy rice. It is resulted that due to climate change, the cropping system, the yields of paddy rice and agricultural water will be changed. Also, it is required for the studies about the efficiency and distribution of irrigation water system as the results of agricultural water use.