What changes do the CMIP5 climate models predict for South Asia and what are some potential impacts on managed ecosystems and water resources

Extended Abstract. Climate change studies in South Asia are important because the region supports one quarter of the global population (half of them living below the poverty line). The objective of our study is to provide the information in ways which can be more readily used by climate change impact assessment community for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies needed to respond to these changes. Monthly simulations of precipitation from 35 CGCMs which participated in the CMIP5 are investigated for baseline (1971–2005) and future [RCP4.5, RCP8.5 (2006–2099)] experiments. The percent change between the historical and future ensemble means for each 1.5º grid square is calculated for each category, story-line and future time-periods. We observe a general increase of up to 17% in monsoon precipitation in the region (except Turkmenistan). Most countries in the region also show an increase in non-monsoon precipitation except Afghanistan and western Iran which show a decrease of up to -9%.