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European Scenario Studies on Future In-Stream Nutrient Concentrations

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan

Citation:  21st Century Watershed Technology: Improving Water Quality and the Environment Conference Proceedings, May 27-June 1, 2012, Bari, Italy  12-13699.(doi:10.13031/2013.41445)
Authors:   Klara Reder, Ilona Bärlund, Anja Voß, Ellen Kynast, Richard Williams, Olli Malve, Martina Flörke
Keywords:   Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Large Scale, Water Quality, Modeling, Europe

Large scale water quality issues have recently become the focus of policy and research. To give insight into large scale water quality issues a scenario analysis was carried out for Europe using the continental water quality model WorldQual with total nitrogen and phosphorus as example substances. Future nitrogen and phosphorus loadings and in-stream concentrations were simulated for the Economy First scenario and compared to contemporary conditions. Results indicate that future total nitrogen loadings are likely to decrease due to land-use change and improvements in land-use management. Climate change has less impact on total nitrogen loadings but has an impact on future in-stream concentrations caused by reduced river water availability. Future total phosphorus loadings are similar to contemporary loadings, but it can be expected that in-stream concentrations increase because of climate change and declined river water availability. The impact of land-use change on future total phosphorus in-stream concentrations is low.

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