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Scenarios Simulation of the Runoff Response for a Peri-Urban Watershed in the Atlantic Forest Biome, Southern Brazil

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan

Citation:  21st Century Watershed Technology: Improving Water Quality and the Environment Conference Proceedings, May 27-June 1, 2012, Bari, Italy  12-13853.(doi:10.13031/2013.41410)
Authors:   Fábio Alex Beling, João Batista Dias de Paiva, Eloiza Maria Cauduro Dias Paiva, Conrad D Heatwole
Keywords:   Runoff Simulation, Kineros2 model, Scenarios, Atlantic Forest

Simulating the hydrologic response of a watershed for different scenarios is an important tool for assessing the rational use of the land and natural resources, especially in environments where urbanization is not ever an organized procedure. This study used the Kineros2 event oriented hydrological model to simulate the runoff response of a 4.9 km urban basin located in the Atlantic Forest biome in Southern Brazil, with 35% of the area being impermeable. The goal of the study was to estimate the characteristic parameters of soils and land cover for the watershed to enable the evaluation of basin response for different land uses. To achieve this objective, the responses of ten measured rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate five parameters of the model. Two of these events were then used to simulate several scenarios. Using 100% forest land cover as reference, a scenario of 100% pasture land use increases runoff volume by 20% and peak flow by 50%. For the current land use (35% impermeable), the runoff volume is 78% higher and the peak 145% higher than the reference. For a scenario with 57% impermeable area, the runoff volume increases in average 124% and the peak 231%. For the most urbanized condition, with 78% impermeable area, the runoff volume increases in average 214% and the peak flow rate 470%.

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