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Water erosion is one of the major causes of soil degradation. In semi-arid areas, where the soil depths are already shallow, the consequences are often irreversible on a historical time scale. Global warming and the land use changes expected during the 21st century are going to influence soil deterioration and the erosion processes. In order to protect the soil resource under the current bioclimatic context and prevent future consequences, it is essential to apprehend the erosion risk. Many studies have developed soil erosion risk modeling methodologies at various scales, from regional to continental scales. The MESOEROS project is the first which aims to understand the soil loss risk for the whole Mediterranean basin for the current climate context and also for the forecast climate changes expected during the 21st century. Two models are used: MESALES (expert rules model) and PESERA (physically- based model). Both divide the soil erosion risk into five classes. Model inputs [soils properties (crusting and erodibility), climate data, DEM and land use data] come from homogenized regional datasets that cover the whole study area (Figure 1). After being calibrated with watershed data and completion of the PESERA modeling for Europe, the two sets of results were analyzed. MESALES estimated Italia, Andalusia, Catalan and the Aragon regions, the western part of Greece and the Balkan region as areas threatened, while PESERA identified the arable regions of Castellan y Leon, the Near East and the high atlas range in Morocco at greater erosion risk. The two methods both model parts of northern Morocco, central and the European part of Turkey, Lebanon and northern Portugal at risk while southern France, the Libyan coasts and southern Greece are never threatened. Analysis of parameter influences on the models and model validation allow understanding the integration of climate change on modeling results. MESALES and PESERA point out an evolution of the soil erosion risk between the 20th and the 21st centuries around the Mediterranean basin. The two models assess a global augmentation of the soil loss risk at the Mediterranean scale. They both show an increase in intensity and area - of the soil erosion risk on regions already sensitive during the 20th century.