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Click on “Download PDF” for the PDF version or on the title for the HTML version. If you are not an ASABE member or if your employer has not arranged for access to the full-text, Click here for options. TMDL Development Using Quantile RegressionPublished by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org Citation: TMDL 2010: Watershed Management to Improve Water Quality Proceedings, 14-17 November 2010 Hyatt Regency Baltimore on the Inner Harbor, Baltimore, Maryland USA 711P0710cd.(doi:10.13031/2013.35780)Authors: Kevin Michael Brannan, Donald Paul Butcher Keywords: Statistical Analysis, Dissolved Oxygen, Water Quality Model Quantile Regression (QR) analysis was used to determine the pollutant reductions needed to achieve the dissolved oxygen (DO) cool-water criteria in the Upper John Day River, Oregon. The QR approach was used rather than least-squares methods because QR investigates more properties of the conditional-probability function. Specifically, QR estimates the expected values for the quantiles of the conditional probability function. The QR analysis was performed on a data subset representing a time of the year when river flows were low and there was little irrigation. This is when the digressions of the DO criteria occurred. Once the QR was performed, an empirical model relating DO to water quality parameters was selected from candidate QR equations for the 25th, 33rd, 50th, and 75th-quantiles. The QR equations that related DO to stream temperature (DO-TEMP) were selected from the 22 parameters considered. The DO-TEMP equation for the 75th-quantile was selected as the empirical model to be used based on several model performance statistics. By using the DO-TEMP empirical model and the simulated stream temperature time-series from the temperature TMDL of the Upper John Day River as an input, it was determined that the load allocations for the stream temperature TMDL were sufficient for the DO TMDL. The empirical model would not have been possible without the use of QR. The QR approach provides powerful tools that can be used to explore water quality relationships and provide insights that are not possible using standard least-squares based regression procedures. (Download PDF) (Export to EndNotes)
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