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Actual Water Balance and Simulations for Scenario A2 in the West Region of Bahia, Brasil

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org

Citation:  2010 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, June 20 - June 23, 2010  1009825.(doi:10.13031/2013.29999)
Authors:   Williams PM Ferreira, Marcos AV Silva, Evandro C Oliveira, Flávio B Justino
Keywords:   water balance, climate model

The objective of this work was to make out the current water balance for the Western Bahia region, in order to evaluate the water availability in the future. In this way, it was used a 30 years historical series of rainfall and average air temperature, aiming to update the climate characterization. Another series of 30 years (2070-2099) was also used to perform future projections of the HadCM3 model on the A2 scenario (more pessimistic). To determine the meteorological variables such as potential and actual evapotranspiration, the deficit and excess of water, it was used the water climatological balance method according to Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). From such analyses it was verified an average increase of 4 C in air temperature and a 12% reduction in rainfall, and therefore, in the availability of water resources, resulting in negative impacts on agricultural production for the next 70 years in West Bahia.

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