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Prediction of Indoor Climate and Long-term Air Quality Using a Building Thermal Transient model, Artificial Neural Networks and Typical Meteorological Year

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan

Citation:  2009 Reno, Nevada, June 21 - June 24, 2009  096913.(doi:10.13031/2013.27362)
Authors:   Gang Sun, Steven J Hoff
Keywords:   Air quality, Typical meteorological year, Modeling, Long-term mean

The objective of this research was to develop a building thermal analysis and air quality predictive (BTA-AQP) model to predict indoor climate and long-term air quality (NH3, H2S and CO2 concentrations and emissions) for swine deep-pit buildings. The paper presents the development of the BTA-AQP model using a building thermal transient model, artificial neural networks, and typical meteorological year (TMY3) data in predicting long-term air quality trends. The good model performance ratings (MSE/S.D.<0.5, CRM0; IoA1; and Nash-Sutcliffe EF > 0.5 for all the predicted parameters) and the graphical presentations reveal that the BTA-AQP model was able to accurately forecast indoor climate and gas concentrations and emissions for swine deep-pit buildings. By comparing the air quality results simulated by the BTA-AQP model using the TMY3 data set with those from a five-year local weather data set, it was found that the TMY3-based predictions followed the long-term mean patterns well, which indicates that the TMY3 data could be used to represent the long-term expectations of source air quality. Future work is needed to improve the accuracy of the BTA-AQP model in terms of four main sources of error: (1) Uncertainties in air quality data; (2) Prediction errors of the BTA model; (3) Prediction errors of the AQP model, and (4) Bias errors of the TMY3 and its limited application.

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