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Impact of Global Warming on Brazilian Beef Production

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org

Citation:  Livestock Environment VIII, 31 August – 4 September 2008, Iguassu Falls, Brazil  701P0408.(doi:10.13031/2013.25597)
Authors:   Carlos Eduardo Bites Romanini, I. D. A Nääs, D D’Alessandro Salgado, K. A. O Lima, M. M do Valle, M. R Labigalini, S. R. L de Souza, A. G Menezes, D. J de Moura
Keywords:   Fuzzy simulation, Cattle meat productivity, Risk of pasture

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in the next hundred years the average temperature may increase by 5 C in most Brazilian regions. Global climate changes may influence the way pasture is produced, leading most of the herd to change from pasture to either confinement or semi-confinement, which significantly increases the cost of meat production. This research aims at developing a predictive function by using quantitative predictive techniques in order to estimate the loss in Brazilian cattle meat production under the IPCC forecast scenario for global warming. The fuzzy model was developed having as input variables the following historical data about environmental factors for the most important producing counties in the Cerrado: total rain index (mm); environmental temperature (C); extension of the dry season (days). The output was the risk of decreasing the grazing land capacity (RP). As a result of RP fuzzy model, an algorithm was developed to predict the impact of the IPCC forecast scenario in order to describe the risk of drought in pasture. The results of this research pointed that the increase of 5 C may lead to decrease in pasture capacity around 50%. According to the built scenario of global warming, environmental techniques for mitigating exposure to higher temperatures will be needed, and the cost of production will proportionally rise.

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