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The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Puerto Rico

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.org

Citation:   No Citation available.
Authors:   Eric W Harmsen, (or initial) (or initial)
Keywords:   Climate change, global warming, agriculture evapotranspiration, rainfall deficit

Abstract: This paper discusses the implications of climate change on agriculture in general terms, with special emphasis on agricultural water resources. Specific potential impacts from climate change in Puerto Rico are also discussed. A detailed case study is presented in which crop water requirements are predicted during the next 100 years for three locations in western Puerto Rico: Adjuntas, Mayagez and Lajas. Rainfall and temperature data were statistically downscaled from predictions obtained from the DOE/NCAR PCM global circulation model. The B1 (low), A2 (mid-high) and A1fi (high) emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios were evaluated. The average estimated rainfall excess (i.e., rainfall ETo > 0) for all scenarios and locations increased in September (the wettest month) to 356.4 mm for the year 2090 relative to an average rainfall excess of 149.8 mm for 2000. The average rainfall deficit (i.e., rainfall ETo < 0) in February increased to -72.1 mm for the year 2090 relative to an average rainfall deficit of -26.1 mm for 2000. The implications of these results suggest that additional water could be saved during the wet months, which would be needed to offset increased irrigation requirements during the dry months.

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