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AQUARIUS Version 2.0: Expansion Of Simulation And Statistical Analysis To Improve Evaluations Of Shellfish Harvest Closure Rules

Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan

Citation:  Computers in Agriculture and Natural Resources, 4th World Congress Conference, Proceedings of the 24-26 July 2006 (Orlando, Florida USA) Publication Date 24 July 2006  701P0606.(doi:10.13031/2013.21941)
Authors:   Fred S Conte and Abbas Ahmadi
Keywords:   Shellfish Sanitation, Water Quality, Modeling and Simulation, Decision Support Systems

The AQUARIUS Version 1.0 program was the first simulation and statistical software tool developed to directly evaluate sanitation related, rainfall closure rules for the shellfish industry, and to perform a series of what-if scenarios for selected variables. AQUARIUS uses rainfall data to simulate the open/close status of a given growing site for any length of time under two closure rules: one the current rule and the other proposed new rule. AQUARIUS then uses fecal coliform data from selected sites to calculate the NSSP 14/43 standards for the current rule and proposed new rule. Based on the results of the NSSP 14/43 standards and T-Tests, the proposed closure rule is either accepted or rejected. AQUARIUS Version 2.0 incorporates a series of improvements: (1) Adding Type II error to calculate how much health risk is associated with relaxing a closure rule. (2) Adding non-parametric statistical tests when samples are not normally distributed. (3) Increasing the resolution of rainfall data from daily to 6-hourly and hourly. (4) Increasing the primary closure rules from one set to three sets, and to change the fixed 10-day-cumulative rainfall to any interval. (5) Adding an optional grace period before the actual closure, and to increase the sample types from one to four types. (6) Adding an adverse sampling condition. (7) Changing the file format of rainfall and fecal coliform data files to the Comma Separated Value format (CSV). (8) Increasing the choices for confidence level from one to three choices (90%, 95%, and 97.5%).

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