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European Scenario Studies on Future In-Stream Nutrient Concentrations
Published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan www.asabe.orgCitation: Transactions of the ASABE. 56(6): 1407-1417. (doi: 10.13031/trans.56.9961) @2013
Authors: Klara Reder, Ilona Bärlund, Anja Voß, Ellen Kynast, Richard Williams, Olli Malve, Martina Flörke
Keywords: Europe, Large scale, Modeling, Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Water quality.
Large-scale water quality issues have recently become the focus of policy and research. To gain insight into large-scale water quality issues, a scenario analysis was carried out for Europe using the continental water quality model WorldQual with total nitrogen and phosphorus as example pollutants. Future nitrogen and phosphorus loadings and in-stream concentrations were simulated for an â€œeconomy firstâ€ scenario and compared to contemporary conditions. Results indicate that future total nitrogen (TN) loadings are likely to decrease in most parts of central Europe by 5 to 25 kg ha-1 year-1 due to land-use change in the form of reduced cropland area as a result of technological changes, as well as improvements in land-use management based on higher efficiencies of application rates. Climate change has less impact on TN loadings, but an increase of future in-stream concentrations is accompanied by reduced river discharge. Future total phosphorus (TP) loadings are similar to contemporary loadings for all of Europe. In-stream TP concentrations do not change in northern and eastern Europe. In central Europe, concentrations increase little (by one class). In a few regions, such as northern Spain, very high changes (up to more than three classes) are apparent as a result of reduced river discharge.